Would lowering the NBA draft age and ending the solo era help or hurt college basketball?

College basketball has already entered an era of transition, in which relaxed transfer restrictions and the arrival of name and image and an era of likeness altered the list-building calculus. Now, there may be another massive change in the business that can make a huge impact on the top of every hiring category.

The NBA and NBPA will likely lower the minimum enlistment eligibility age from 19 to 18 as soon as 2024, Based on reports. In essence, the move means players can jump right back from high school basketball to the NBA without stopping for a year elsewhere. Since 2005, singles players have become a staple in college hoops as they regularly see a season on campus as the best way to bridge the needed gap between high school and the professional ranks.

So what does this mean for college basketball? The sport has survived quite a bit in recent years, and this development seems to be just the latest curveball. So for this version of Dribble Handoff, our team of writers is considering whether they think a potential change to the minimum enlistment age would be good or bad for college basketball.

College basketball may get hurt, but it’ll be fine

I think losing this so-called one-and-done rule is clearly going to hurt college basketball more than just helping to think that we’ll once again start losing some of the best prep talent every year – for example, the next releases of Kevin Durant, Derek Rose, Jason Tatum, Carmelo Anthony, Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Lonzo Ball and any other prospect talented enough to convince an NBA franchisee to spend the first round on him after high school. This is not cool. But I still support excluding the rule because a) college basketball will be fine regardless, and b) it’s simply the right thing to do.

It has been proven, time and time again, that the best high school prospects are fully capable of succeeding along the road from prep to professional. From 1995 through 2005—also known as the 11-year window during which the prep prospects entered the NBA draft on a regular basis before the only significant rule began to block them—the franchise used a first-round pick on exactly 29 high school players. At least five of those players (and maybe six depending on what you think of Amar’e Stoudemire) would end up as the Naismith Memorial Hall of Famers. And eight of the 29 have made at least one NBA All-Star team. In other words, if you spent the first round picking a player in high school between 1995 and 2005, there’s a better than 20% chance of you getting a Hall of Famer in the future, and a 27.6% chance that you’ll get at least an NBA All-Star in the future. . That’s an astonishing injury rate and proof that the era of pro prep that brought Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dwight Howard to the NBA was, in general, remarkable for the prospects and franchises involved. It was good last time. You will be fine this time. And more than anything else, it will represent a healthier and fairer system again. – Gary Parish

The NBA age limit has greatly enhanced the power of superstars in college hoops

Feast your eyes on the list of players below. Those are the prospects since 2006 who graduated from high school in the top ten in the graduating class and/or became all-American talents with highly drafted and who played only one season of college basketball. It’s safe to speculate that the vast majority would have gone straight to the NBA if it had been allowed. Instead, college basketball was stars for one season.

The list is long. This is the point.

Kevin Durant, Greg Odin, Eric Gordon, Michael Beasley, Derek Rose, Kevin Love, Junior Holiday, DeMar DeRozan, John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Derek Vevers, Lance Stephenson, Kyrie Irving, Tobias Harris, Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers, Michael Kidd – Gilchrist, Bradley Beal, Nerlins Noel, Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon, Jabari Parker, D’Angelo Russell, Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jaylene Brown, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Lonzo Paul, Jason Tatum, De Aaron Fox, Pam Adebayo, Malik Monk, Trae Young, Dender Eaton, Marvin Bagley III, Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Vernon Curry Jr., Anthony Edwards, Cole Anthony, Kid Cunningham, Evan Mobley Jr., Scotty Barnes, Gallings, Chet Holmgren and Paulo Panchero .

There are National Champions, National Players of the Year, National Freshmen, All-American, and program-changing talents on that 48-player roster. No, they didn’t last long in college. Yes, they upped the sport’s wattage in an age when college hoops desperately needed as much name recognition and star power as possible.

I remain skeptical as to when this rule change will actually happen because it has long been the position of the NBA Players Association not to go back to the previous protocol. And the ESPN report from Monday He also noted that if the change does occur, we may wait a little longer than 2024. However, changing the NBA rule may be the “right” thing to do, but it will undoubtedly hurt the college basketball product in the process if and when it comes to pass. Do not believe me? Read the list of names again. – Matt Norlander

More college stars will stay in school

I am of the firm belief that ending one era of work and doing would be a net positive for college hoops. There will be a noticeable drain of talent at first – over the past decade there have been roughly three real new students each year who have all become Americans, and most of them were a single individual – but the sport will eventually recover to restore an older demographic and easily evolve into a new era. This likely features more well-known names that stay longer and get a bigger cut of the NIL pie, which in turn would be a boon to the sport. The drastic change of rosters in the solo era has caused me to believe that public interest in the sport has waned in recent years. Which can be directly addressed by changing the age qualification of the NBA draft.

The era of solo work isn’t really going to end, until we’re clear. The size of the well-meaning five-stars with sure lottery odds pouring into college hoops will likely drop dramatically — Zion Williamsons or Cade Cunninghams no longer go to college when they’re top-five picks — but they won’t stop altogether just because the qualifying age For conscription has decreased by a year. More likely, the Single Order would simply exist in a different form – with rising prospects later emerging in the void formerly reserved for the elite of the true solo era.

I believe that college basketball players and older rosters would be the most unintended positive consequence if the enlistment eligibility age changed. Sports thrive when good players stay longer, leaving lasting memories in the sport. The era of Tyler Hansbro in North Carolina. The Adam Morrison Era in Gonzaga. J.J. Redick’s era in Duke. The sport could lose top talent more consistently if elite talent didn’t make it to college or leave for the NBA as early as they did, but marginal NBA players — or even just good college players who probably don’t perform well into the NBA — will be survival. A longer tenure in the college ranks is a win for the NBA and college basketball as both move into an exciting new era. – Kyle Boone

College basketball can become more competitive

Hey Judy. Only when college basketball overtook the death sentences handed down after the creation of G League Ignite and Overtime Elite did more news surfaced that would presumably doom the sport. Don’t buy it. Sure, the potential end to one era and act of promoting Tuesday night’s game between NC State and Duke would make it more difficult for television networks, but college basketball has always been more than just the stars. As someone who fell in love with college athletics in the late ’90s and early 2000s, it never occurred to me that Amary Stoudemire, LeBron James, or Dwight Howard didn’t play college basketball. In fact, the endless praise and attention that would have been lavished on these college basketball players would likely distract an affected mind from the things that make college basketball truly great.

Sports fans who need one-off stars fed by our 21st century hype machines to take an interest in college basketball, aren’t true fans of the sport. If missing out on some of those casual games meant that some night games had some low TV ratings, it wouldn’t mean anything at all. Football pays TV money, and fans of the biggest college basketball fan bases will watch no matter who’s wearing the uniform. This change may actually enhance the purity of the sport. If a select group of coaches can no longer count on the advantage of top talent, that balances the playing field and places a greater premium on tactics and player development, making a coaching career a little more worthy and a little less than winning a recruiting contest at the highest price.

By far the biggest threat to college basketball right now that needs to be addressed is the potential for a major change in the NCAA Championship. Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner Greg Sankey float Proposals that could legitimately destroy the sport. Changing the recruitment age is not one of them. – David Cope

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