Our Team’s Best Bets Nationals vs. Cardinals, Marlins vs. Phillies, More (September 8)

It’s a light Thursday in Major League Baseball, but there are still a few betting opportunities left.

Our analysts looked at the list and found it worth the bet CitizensbasicsAnd the redsCubsAnd the giantsbruer And the MarlinsPhyllis.

We have plays on a pair of underdogs, a running line and a the total. So, without further delay, let’s take a look at Thursday’s best bets.

MLB Odds and Choices

Citizens of Washington vs. St. Louis Cardinals

pick or pick Citizens Moneyline
the book winbet
jugs Josiah Gray vs. Adam Wainwright
the first show 1:15 p.m. ET

DJ James: Adam Wainwright has been impressive this season at the age of 41. However, it feeds on good luck that should eventually expire. Overall, it has 4.26 xERA and 3.21 ERA.

Josiah Gray will deliver for the national team. He has 4.91 ERA for 4.15 xERA. It also allowed for a higher average exit speed than the Waino (88 mph vs 88.2 mph). He has a higher strike rate, but he can walk a little more than veteran hitters. However, based on the expected stats, the difference between these two beginner shooters is negligible.

Now, the Cardinals have been one of the best batting teams in baseball for quite some time. They have the highest wRC+ off from the right at 128 in the last month. Nats is above average, though, at 103. This places a value on Washington with how close the betting match is in this game.

Gray isn’t the best player at first, but he’s still young and getting better. His basic stats are much more encouraging than his traditional numbers. In the second half of the season, Gray holds 6.19 ERA, but a lot of that has to do with the hiking trails release. He just needs to stay in the strike zone to keep the hitters away from the cardinal.

The Cardinal ranks in the middle of the group with the chase rate, so he’ll have some ups and downs. Gray throws the slider and the curve ball 53.6% of the time, compared to the fastball at 41.5%.

This should at least limit damage somewhat with a tougher lineup. There are still five hitters holding .330+ xwOBA from those out-of-speed pitches, but the higher use of speed will definitely benefit the young novice.

Wainwright may be impressive for an older marksman, but he’s still overrated. Having xERA more than one point higher than the actual ERA proves that luck will run out at one point or another. The Nationals have had five hitters with 0.325+ xwOBA right-handers in the past month.

Take Nationals on +255 as an above-average offense against right-handers. Run it up to +180. Select: Washington Nationals +255 | Playing up to +180


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Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

pick or pick under 8.5
the book points
jugs Luis Sesa vs. Adrian Samson
the first show 2:20 PM ET

Tony Sartori: We have the third and final game of this NL Central game where the Chicago Cubs host the Cincinnati Reds.

Taking the mound for Cincinnati is Luis Cessa, who made his fourth straight start since returning to the spin. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last three starts and a bottom hit in every game – a trend I expect to continue in this match.

With 29 career games against Cessa, Cubs’ current roster has just .208 BA, .333 SLG and .312 wOBA. After the right hand, there is a competent bullpup that has been ranked first in the first half of the league in ERA, SLG and FIP since the beginning of August.

However, this squad may not get much support as the Reds are set to face right-handed Adrian Sampson. With 15 appearances this season, Sampson has a 3.95 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Across three career starts against Cincinnati, Sampson scored a 3.46 ERA.

Since August 1, the Reds have ranked 19th in the league in BA, 23rd in SLG, 21st in OPS and 20th in wOBA when facing right-handed bowlers. Neither of these offenses are considered explosive, and while the primary bowler isn’t the best, they should be good enough to limit scoring.

The weather should help us only because the forecast indicates weak gusts of wind from the right field. I would like to play this line until (-120).


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San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers

pick or pick Runline Brewers
the book points
jugs Scott Alexander vs Corbin Burns
the first show 4:10 p.m. ET

Jules Posner: The San Francisco Giants beat Game One with a double header against the Milwaukee Brewers, and guess what? The barn of giants is bad.

Corbin Burnes got the ball rolling for the Brewers and while he hasn’t been as dominant at home this season as he was last season, the Giants’ attack hasn’t been as good against the right-handers as it was last season.

This looks like a great position for Burns to get back on track after three very poor starts. In fact, this was the worst period of his career as a rookie. Over his past three starts, he has given up three or more runs earned in each – 7.29 ERA.

On the flip side, the Giants offense has been the league’s worst attack on the road against right-handers over the past two weeks. The Giants have also struggled this season. Pair that with their record on Route 28-38 and the Giants’ hopes are rather slim on Game 1 of the double header.

The Brewers’ running streak opened at -1.5 at +100 possibilities. This should be a play for -115 or better.


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Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

pick or pick Marlins Moneyline
the book kings
jugs Kyle Gibson vs. Sandy Alcantara
the first show 6:45 PM ET

DJ James: Sandy Alcantara could be the winner of the National League Cy Young Award this season, although the Miami Marlins struggled to provide support for the running. He will play Kyle Gibson and the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night.

Gibson was serviceable with 4.48 ERA and 4.21 xERA. This does not compare to Alcántara’s 2.36 ERA and 2.97 xERA. Alcántara ranks 58th in average exit speed while throwing fast balls around 98 mph.

Philadelphia has the wRC+95 team from right betting last month. Miami comes in at 73, but that’s disingenuous. Since Gibson is about the league average, Miami could find its way into the base.

The Marlins has five hitters with 0.320+ xwOBA right-wingers in the past month. That should be more than enough against a pitcher with a 4.78 ERA in the second half of the season.

Supporting Alcántara against a team that has had trouble with the right-wingers lately is the right choice in this game. Miami has enough insult to get the job done and Alcantara usually delves into matches.

Take Miami from +115 to -110.


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