With only nine games on the roster today, we had to look a bit deeper to find the best value. Still, we did find plenty of it, with a pair of pitchers expected to spend opposite nights, and a Baltimore batter to get on the bat.
We’re out on the home stretch for the MLB season. This week starts off slightly with just nine games on the baseball betting board, but there’s still plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.
Logan Gilbert will look to the strength of the Sailors one step closer to ending their long post-season drought when he takes the ball against the Happy Angels. Anthony Santander should be doing some punches against the Tigers, and Meryl Kelly could be in for another short night against the Dodgers.
Check out the MLB player’s best bets for Monday, September 19.
MLB props on September 19
The footage was taken on 9/19/2022 at 1:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each selection to go to the full analysis.
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If the Seattle Mariners can finally break the prolonged post-season drought, they will be a problem for opponents thanks to their impressive start — of which Logan Gilbert is a big part. The right-handed made a huge leap in his second major league season, reaching 3.19 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and most importantly, he appears to have peaked in time.
Gilbert succumbed to a one-time gain with opponents capping an average of 177 hits over three starts in September and also saw a spike in hits – Hit 23 strokes over 17 rounds at this run. And you’ll stand a great chance of continuing to level up your Ks in today’s game against the Los Angeles Angels.
Even though the Angels have had a fight lately, they still hit at a higher rate than anyone in baseball. Angels attack 26.9% of the time when they encounter right-handers, which is 1.5 percentage points more than the next closest team. Their 9.61 batting average per game is also the most in baseball.
Gilbert’s total hits are set at a moderate 5.5 to face the MLS, a number we can attack the most against. Not only is he in a strike groove, but he’s also overshadowed in both starts against the angels.
He should get a boost with his ability to go fairly deep into the ball game against the Angles who are ranked 21st in the OPS and 23rd in wRC+ when facing right-handed bowlers this season. Gilbert stays in his groove and cashes on the strike prop here.
Logan Gilbert brace: more than 5.5 nets (115)
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Santander remains cut off
The Baltimore Orioles took a much-needed win with a big comeback in the ninth inning to avoid being overrun by the Toronto Blue Jays yesterday. Now, they will try to transfer that momentum to their next series against the Detroit Tigers.
The Orioles will need their attack at full speed if they are to hope to make up some ground in the Wild Card race, and they’ll stand a good chance of doing so when they pit against Tigers starter Tyler Alexander.
The left-hander is going through a difficult season, reaching a predicted ERA of 5.40. It also sheds a .287 predicted BA, and a .496 predicted slowdown—both of which are in the bottom 3% of the MLB.
My favorite Oriole to take advantage of this is ball player Anthony Santander. The O’s outfielder is going through a productive season of .248 with .773 OPS, including 27 home rounds. Additionally, Santander does Southern hammers, with hit averages and OPS hits of .296 and .898.
Santander should get a few hits or an extra base kick in this match, and close to the money is a good bet to cash in on his total bases.
Anthony Santander Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Meryl Kelly is having a really good season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The right hand is 12-6 with 3.01 ERA and holds opponents with a hitting average of 0.219. Now, imagine how good his season would be if the Los Angeles Dodgers weren’t around.
Yes, the Dodgers have been a thorn in Kelly’s side all season (which is fair, it can be said of most novice shooters in the National League this year), and that’s who he’ll be staring at when he takes a hill Monday night.
The numbers are not pretty. In four games against Los Angeles this season, Kelly has roughed up for an 8.50 ERA, with a 2.06 WHIP, 1,042 OPS (the worst against any opponent this season), over 18 rounds of action. And that’s the last number that interests us here today.
Kelly’s Outs record support hit the plate at 17.5, which seems a bit low for his long season numbers. However, he averages only 4.5 innings at each start when he hits his toes against the Dodgers and has thrown five or fewer rounds (15 wins) in each of his last three games against Los Angeles.
Like I said, not many newbies can navigate this stacked Dodgers lineup with great success, but they seem to really get a feel for Kelly’s things and the game plan to attack them. Having the lowest recorded value plus money is a solid value.
Meryl Kelly Probe: scored less than 17.5 (+115)
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